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Elections 2012       Presidential Elections       Mitt Romney

2012 predicton: Mitt Romney will win the presidency with 275 electoral votes




By Dean Chambers

Prediction from 2012 that Romney would win the election with narrow electoral college majority

It is the night before the election and the final projection as shown on the map is Mitt Romney winning 275 electoral votes, defeating President Obama, who will win 263 electoral votes. While Mitt Romney leads in the Rasmussen and Gallup polls released today by 49 percent to 48 percent, he also leads in the QStarNews Daily Tracking poll for today by a 51 percent to 48 percent margin. Most other polls have the popular vote nationally tied or within the margin of error as do those polls.

 

All the projections and prognosticators agree on the other 39 states and the District of Columbia, leaving the disagreements on which candidate is going to win most of the infamous 11 keys swing states, often referred to as “battleground” states by some. QStarNews and UnSkewedPolls.com have conducted three survey of these 11 keys swing states, including the latest one. Those 11 states are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

 

Among those states that all seem to agree on in projecting, President Obama leads with 201 electoral votes to Mitt Romney having 191 electoral votes. The Real Clear Politics map with toss-up states, shows those states that are clearly consensus who will win those. Below is the anaylsis of how the 11 keys swing states will fall when all the votes are counted, recounted, litigated, reviewed, recanvassed or whatever else might happen.

 

Iowa, New Hampshire and Wisconsin are going to be some of the closest states in the entire election. They are all too close to call by the latest polling data. Commentary Kirsten Powers pointed out something interesting about these states on Fox News tonight, that they all allow same-day voter registration and that the Obama campaign has been very good at getting voters registered and voting in states that allow this. That point is well-taken and for that reason these states will very narrowly go for President Obama. That puts the electoral count 221 Obama to 191 Romney.

 

The next grouping of swing states are Florida, North Carolina and Virginia. These have historically been “red” states and Romney leads in the RCP average in North Carolina and Florida. It's an easy prediction to call those for Romney. Virginia shows a very small Obama lead in the RCP average that is skewed by a few late-reporting skewed polls. Removing those, the RCP average in Virginia would favor Romney as it did just a day or two ago. Mitt Romney will win Virginia close. These states are worth 57 electoral votes, and move the count to Obama 221 to Romney 248.

 

Like that grouping, the grouping of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada are states that are close but are more likely to go for President Obama. Obama leads in the RCP average in all three, and will win these three. They are worth 42 electoral votes, which brings the count to Obama 263 to Romney 248.

 

Colorado is in a category by itself. The RCP average shows Obama leading 48.8 percent to Romney at 47.3 percent. Mitt Romney has campaigned extensively in this race recently, has had some great rallies and connected well with the voters. The last Rasmussen survey of the state, based on a very balanced and fair sample, shows Romney winning the state 50 percent to 47 percent. Other than a skewed Public Policy Polling survey, the rest of the polls show Romney tied or leading or trailing by a margin that is within the margin of error. The vote will be within one or two percent with Romney winning Colorado. That puts the count at Obama 263 to Romney 257 with only Ohio left to decide the election.

 

The race is Ohio is like the national race, it is a story of many believing skewed polls that show President Obama performing stronger than he really is while Romney is likely to surprise them in winning it. Many of the polls for Ohio are skewed and so too is the RCP average because of that. The most recent poll for Ohio is the Ohio Poll/Univ. of Cincinnati survey that shows Obama leading 50 percent to 49 percent with a 3.3 percent margin of error. The latest Rasmussen poll of Ohio has the race in the state tied at 49 percent.

 

As Karl Rove has pointed out, the Democrats huge advantage in early voting from 2008 has been lessened by a more effective Republican early voting organization this year. This year's early voting includes more than 576,000 Democrats to 492,000 Republicans. That margin is about 265,000 less than the larger margin by which Democrats dominated early voting four years ago in Ohio. That cancels the 262,000 vote margin by which Obama won Ohio four years ago. The election day voting in 2008 was won by McCain by 75,000 votes, who lost the state overall since Obama had won the early voting by more than 337,000 votes. Additionally, it is estimated that more than 350,000 evangelical Christians, who were primary supporters of Mike Huckabee in the 2008 primaries, did not turn out to vote for McCain in the general election.

 

Mitt Romney is going to easily win the election day voting in Ohio, and the more of those 350,000 evangelicals voting only adds to Romney's margin in Ohio. Romney will win Ohio by two or three percent state-wide and about 200,000 votes. With Ohio's 18 electoral votes, Mitt Romney wins the election with 275 electoral votes to Barack Obama at 263 electoral votes.

 

That is the final projection. The full results and details, and projected popular vote in each state and related stats are all at the web site.

 

 






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Posted September 21, 2015 at 4:08 PM